Hurricane.

[chaggle]

Hurricane Bertha has passed over us from what I can tell from the rain radar and other sources.

Absolute pussycat. I don't know what all the fuss is about...

[Tony Williams]

Ever since Michael Fish's notorious "what hurricane?" remark the Met Office has been paranoid about ensuring that they never again play down the potential effect of a major storm. So they sometimes cry wolf, inevitably.

Considering the vast quantity of computer power devoted to weather forecasting and the confidence with which the TV presenters predict the near future I am constantly amazed by how often they get it wrong. Over the past couple of weeks I have seen them confidently predicted a dry day at the same time as it was chucking it down outside, and predicting showers all afternoon only to get nary a drop. Yet they never seem to apologise or admit that they made a complete hash of their previous forecast. I sometimes wonder whether they have a selective memory which just wipes away their recollection of their previous forecasts.

[chaggle]

Agreed.

I find Rain Alarm very good but only for fairly immediate rainfall predictions and wind direction.

http://www.rain-alarm.com/

Poor old Fishy will never live that down will he? I'm pleased to see that the delightful Laura Tobin - weather presenter on ITV in the morning -was defending him all week and others are also saying what we sensible types all know - that you can't actually get a hurricane in the UK.

[Dr B]

Agreed, they gave a terrible forecast for the midlands on Friday....never happened.....was a perfectly fine day. Problem is they try to make the weather....news. Its not news (unless extreme).

[Tony Williams]

recall being very impressed on my first visit to the USA (Dallas, as it happens - don't ask) by the weather forecast on the local TV station which predicted, a few hours in advance, which towns would be hit by rain storms and when it would happen to each town. From the high vantage point of my hotel room I could see the storms obediently tracking across the flat countryside, on schedule.

To be fair, I expect that predictions are somewhat easier for a very large area of flat ground than they are in my hilly bit of England where the weather can be different in the next valley a couple of miles away.

[chaggle]

I recall being very impressed on my first visit to the USA (Dallas, as it happens - don't ask) by the weather forecast on the local TV station which predicted, a few hours in advance, which towns would be hit by rain storms and when it would happen to each town. From the high vantage point of my hotel room I could see the storms obediently tracking across the flat countryside, on schedule.

To be fair, I expect that predictions are somewhat easier for a very large area of flat ground than they are in my hilly bit of England where the weather can be different in the next valley a couple of miles away.

I expect your last para is the truth. Here in the British Isles we are right in the path of Atlantic depressions which track across us and are notoriously difficult to predict accurately and in our hilly little islands a few miles north or south makes all the difference.

In Spain (apart from May to September which was wall to wall sunshine) it was a bit similar. We were right at the mouth of the med a little way up in the mountains - Atlantic to the west, Europe to the north east, the vast Sahara only a few miles south - bit of a crossroads in more ways than one.

Often during the winter we could see constant rain for a whole day on the mountains a few miles away across the valley and we would be in sunshine - bit of a nightmare to forecast I suppose.

[Dr B]

I can remember being a small child in the lake district and the same thunderstorms would rattle around the valley (almost stuck) because of the mountains....so thunderstorms could last for hours, as they came passed you, then bounced back towards you 30mins later, and so on.

I also lived on the west coast of the lakes and you could easily see the ones coming across the sea, and hour or so before they got to you.